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Weather Forecasting Using Your Eyes
by Jeanette Cain
By careful observation of sky and air conditions, you can predict the your local weather with surprising accuracy. Your prediction ought to be accurate for up to 24 hours.
HYPOTHESIS: Short-term weather forecasting can be accurate by personal gathering and interpretation of observational data without the help of weather measuring equipment.
MATERIALS NEEDED:
1. Research materials on clouds, air, and weather maps.
2. Pad and pencil
3. Cloud pictorial identification chart:
Title: Weather Forecasting by Cloud Type Table
Two Columns with two Subtitles:
Left column: A. Cloud Name
Right column: B. Forecast
Body of left column:
1a. Cumulus clouds
2a. Cumulonimbus clouds
3a. Stratocumulus clouds
4a. Altocumulus clouds
5a. Cirrocumulus clouds
6a. Cirrostratus clouds
Body of right column:
1b. Fair weather ahead. If they are building, it may turn stormy.
2b. Rain - be alert for strong wind gusts and possible lightning.
3b. There is a chance of light rain. If it is cold, there is a chance of snow.
4b. If these are accompanied by a halo around the moon or the sun, rain could be coming.
5b. Expect a change in the weather.
6b. Expect a change to bad weather.
Use your research materials on meteorology to construct other charts related to the project. Once you have the charts you plan to use, keep a record every day for several weeks on your predictions of weather. Compare your predictions to the actual weather developments on those days. Was your hypothesis correct?
You can add other observational factors to your charts: how to interpret seeing a halo or ring around the sun or moon; is a particular cloud moving toward or away from you; does it feel like it's getting hotter or colder outside; and, if the day sky has no clouds, will the night be cooler without the clouds acting as insulation.
Other questions you may ask:
1. Does adding one single measured factor increase prediction accuracy? That is, barometric pressure going up or down, wind direction, etc.
2.Can you calculate the percentage of accurate predictions for 4 hours, 8 hours, and 24 hours?
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